Three-year survival and recurrence after stroke in Malmö, Sweden: an analysis of stroke registry data.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Data from the Malmö Stroke Registry were analyzed to determine whether any change in survival or nonfatal stroke recurrence rates had occurred during the 4-year period from 1989 through 1992 and whether prognosis was related to area of residence. METHODS The series comprised 2290 patients, 1051 men and 1239 women, followed up for 3 years after their first stroke during the period 1989 through 1992. RESULTS Of the series as a whole, 959(43.4%) died and 137(6%) suffered a second nonfatal stroke. Multivariate analysis showed age, type of stroke, severity of stroke, and the presence of diabetes mellitus or cardiac disease each to be an independent predictor of mortality, and the presence of diabetes, atrial fibrillation, and history of transient ischemic attacks each to be associated with increased risk of recurrence. Treatment for hypertension was associated with a protective effect. As compared to those with first stroke in 1989, those with first stroke in 1992 were characterized by a lower recurrence rate, which was reduced by 70% in the male subgroup (P=0.003) and by 80% in the female subgroup (P=0.006), the corresponding reduction in all-cause mortality being 30% (P=0.007) and 10% (P=0.5, NS). Recurrence-free survival rates differed markedly between the 17 residential areas studied. CONCLUSIONS The present study showed that survival rates after stroke have improved and recurrence rates have declined in this urban population. Further studies are needed to ascertain to what extent intraurban variation in the proportion of recurrence-free 3-year survivors is to be explained by differences in the severity of initial stroke and other prognostic markers, or in initial treatment and secondary preventive measures.